Cotality's August 2026 Housing Chart Pack landed with a thud. Perth is finally in negative monthly territory, joining Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and every other mainland capital in a broad national softening. Only Darwin and Adelaide are still technically positive, and neither by a convincing margin.
If you're a buyer in Oran Park, Gregory Hills, Narellan or anywhere along the Camden LGA's growth corridor, you've probably heard some version of this and wondered what it means for you. The answer is more nuanced than the national headline suggests, and it is largely good news if you're pre-approved and in a position to move.
The National Picture Is Not the Local Picture
Sydney's headline monthly decline of 0.6% is real, but it is not evenly distributed. The suburbs driving that number are predominantly in the inner city, eastern suburbs and upper north shore, where price points sit well above $2 million and any percentage movement translates to very large dollar figures.
The south-west growth corridor tells a different story. Cotality's sub-regional data consistently shows that outer metropolitan growth areas with genuine infrastructure investment, such as the Camden LGA and the Leppington to Oran Park arc, hold more firmly through national softening cycles than established high-value suburbs. The reason is straightforward: buyers in these areas are predominantly owner-occupiers purchasing their primary home, not investors leveraged to yield. Their motivation is more stable, and their presence in the market is less sensitive to short-term sentiment shifts.
Median dwelling values in the 2570 postcode, covering Camden, Narellan and Oran Park, sit at approximately $890,000, with Gregory Hills and Gledswood Hills running slightly above. These are meaningful numbers, but they remain below comparable mid-ring Sydney suburbs by 30 to 40%.
What Softening Actually Looks Like on the Ground
The data shift that matters most to buyers in this corridor is not the headline price number. It is the days-on-market figure and the clearance rate at private treaty sales.
Eighteen months ago, well-presented homes in Spring Farm and Mount Annan were selling within seven to ten days, often without the first open home finishing. Vendors were routinely achieving 5 to 8% above their initial asking price. That market is gone.
Today, the same homes are sitting for 25 to 35 days on average. Vendors are making price adjustments after the second or third open. Buyers who missed out in 2024 and 2025 because the market was simply moving too fast now have time to do proper due diligence, organise building inspections, and negotiate. This is not a market in distress. It is a market returning to a functional equilibrium where buyers have agency.
The Rate Question
Further RBA cuts are priced in by market economists before December 2026, according to the ASX RBA Rate Indicator. If they arrive as expected, they will do two things simultaneously: reduce your monthly repayment on a new loan, and increase the borrowing capacity calculations that lenders use at serviceability assessment.
On a $700,000 loan, a 0.5% reduction in rates reduces monthly repayments by approximately $220 per month. That is not a trivial number over the life of a loan. More significantly, each rate cut slightly increases the maximum loan amount a lender will approve at the current serviceability buffer, which can be the difference between affording a freestanding home versus a townhouse in this corridor.
The practical implication: buyers who are 90 to 120 days away from being purchase-ready are moving into a window where both price conditions and borrowing conditions could be more favourable than they are today. Start your application now to get pre-approved so you're positioned when that window opens fully.
What Michael Is Seeing with Local Buyers
Michael is working with buyers across Oran Park, Leppington, Gregory Hills and Narellan every week. The consistent theme right now: buyers who got knocked out of the 2024 to 2025 market because they could not move fast enough are coming back with more confidence and finding a fundamentally different experience.
Offers are being accepted. Vendors are negotiating. Banks are lending. The gap between what buyers can borrow and what properties are asking has narrowed meaningfully as prices plateaued and rates eased from their 2024 peaks.
If you've been sitting on the fence because the market felt chaotic, the August 2026 Cotality data is, paradoxically, a signal to start moving. Book a free 30-minute session to get a real borrowing capacity figure, not a calculator estimate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy property in south-west Sydney?
For buyers who are pre-approved and have a genuine need, the current market conditions in the Camden LGA and south-west Sydney growth corridor are more favourable than at any point since early 2023. Vendors are negotiating, stock is sitting longer, and expected RBA rate cuts over the next six months will further improve borrowing capacity.
Will property prices in Oran Park and Gregory Hills fall further in 2026?
The south-west Sydney growth corridor has historically shown more resilience than the inner and eastern suburbs during national softening cycles. The combination of genuine population inflow, Western Sydney Airport infrastructure investment, and relative affordability within the Sydney context provides a structural floor. Significant further falls would require a meaningful deterioration in local employment or a reversal of the population growth trend, neither of which current data suggests.
How much can I borrow to buy in the Macarthur region right now?
Borrowing capacity depends on your income, existing debts, deposit size and the lender's current serviceability assessment rate. At current rates, a household earning $150,000 combined with minimal existing debt and a 10% deposit can typically access borrowing in the $700,000 to $850,000 range, though this varies significantly by lender and structure. The only accurate answer is a lender-assessed pre-approval rather than a calculator figure.
For a clear, honest answer on what you can borrow in the current market, call Michael on +61 420 699 983 or book a free 30-minute session at tidycal.com/3qr45gm/30-minute-meeting.