The Spring Context
Spring is the most anticipated selling season in Australian real estate. The logic has held for decades: the weather improves, gardens look their best, families with school-age children want to be settled before the new academic year, and vendors who have been holding through winter step forward with their campaigns. The window between early September and mid-December is where the majority of the year's real estate activity traditionally concentrates.
The spring of 2026 is arriving into a materially different market than 2024 or 2025. Auction clearance rates have been below 50% since June. Values are declining across most capital cities. Vendor discounts are at a two-year high. Against that backdrop, the data for the first weeks of September indicates a cooler start to the season than at any point in the post-pandemic cycle.
New Listings Running Below Average
For the 4 weeks ending 6 September 2026, Cotality recorded 34,486 new listings nationally. That is 3.1% below the same period last year and 6.4% below the 5-year average for the same weeks. Cotality's own commentary notes this "may signal a cooler start to the spring selling season" - a measured understatement from an organisation that rarely editorialises.
The decision not to list is a rational one for many vendors. A seller who purchased in Oran Park in 2022 and refinanced in 2023 may have a price expectation anchored to 2024-2025 values. Listing now, in a market where comparable properties are achieving 4.5% below asking price and sitting for 45 days in Sydney, means either accepting that gap or watching their campaign accumulate stigma over two months before eventually selling at a lower figure than a prompt, correctly-priced launch would have achieved.
The spring listing hesitation is particularly sharp in Sydney, where new listings are down 18.8% on the same period last year. Melbourne is down 13.7%. Both southern capital cities show vendors pulling back at a rate that reflects the loss of confidence in the market's ability to deliver the prices they need.
Total Listings Up Sharply: The Accumulation Effect
The apparent paradox in the September 2026 data is that despite fewer new listings, total available stock is rising. Nationally, 139,167 properties are listed for sale as at early September, up 18.1% on a year ago and 2.2% above the 5-year average.
This is not a contradiction. It is the accumulation effect. When selling velocity slows, existing stock sits on the market longer, and the total pool grows even as new additions slow. A market that would have cleared 5,000 properties in a given fortnight two years ago may only clear 3,500 today. The difference accumulates in the listings count week by week.
For buyers, this is significant. The choice available in the market right now is broader than at any point since the post-pandemic downturn of 2022. Properties that might have been snapped up within a week in 2024 are sitting at 30, 45, or 60 days. The pressure to make fast decisions has been replaced by the ability to research, compare, and negotiate.
Days on Market: Every City Has Slowed
The national median days on market reached 39 days for the period to September 2026, up from 28 days at the same point last year. That is an increase of 11 days, or 39%, in 12 months. No capital city has bucked this trend.
Median Days on Market by City - September 2026
- Canberra: 51 days
- Sydney: 45 days
- Melbourne: 43 days
- Brisbane: 35 days
- Darwin: 34 days
- Adelaide: 33 days
- Hobart: 31 days
- Perth: 22 days (up from ~12 days a year ago)
- National median: 39 days (up from 28 days a year ago)
Canberra's 51 days is the highest of any capital city and reflects that market's particular combination of public sector employment uncertainty and high price points relative to private sector incomes. Perth at 22 days remains the fastest market in Australia, but the comparison to 12 months ago is stark: the city that was clearing stock before some buyers had even booked inspection appointments has more than doubled its typical selling time.
Regional areas are also slowing. The regional median is now 42 days, close to the 43-day peak recorded in February 2025. The tree-change and sea-change tailwinds that accelerated regional markets during 2020 to 2022 have comprehensively dissipated.
Regional vs Capital City New Listings
The new listings data tells a different story depending on where you are looking. Sydney is down 18.8% and Melbourne down 13.7% in new listings compared to the same period last year. Vendors in these markets have pulled back sharply.
Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide tell a different story. Vendors in those markets are still relatively willing to list, consistent with the fact that their markets - while softening - have not fallen as severely as the southern capitals over the past 12 months. Brisbane values are still up 10.8% annually despite the recent quarterly softening. Perth is still up 15.6% annually. Vendors in those markets have a recent price history that gives them more confidence their listing will achieve their target.
This divergence in vendor confidence between southern and northern or western capitals is one of the defining features of the September 2026 national picture. Australia does not have one property market; it has six distinct capital city cycles in different phases simultaneously.
What the Spring Season Could Look Like
Three broad scenarios are plausible for the spring 2026 season as it develops through October and November.
In the first scenario, the expectation of further RBA rate movement rebuilds buyer confidence through October. Clearance rates recover above 55%, auction volumes increase, and the spring season delivers a moderate result that is softer than 2024 but not as subdued as current indicators suggest. Vendors in this scenario who hold their nerve will be rewarded.
In the second scenario, buyer confidence remains suppressed into November. Vendors list in September expecting a spring recovery that does not materialise. Vendor discounts widen further, days on market extend toward 50 days nationally, and the season ends with a large cohort of properties being pulled and relisted in January 2027.
The third scenario sits between these: a patchy season where some segments and submarkets perform reasonably - Macarthur corridor first home buyer properties, well-priced stock in sub-$1 million Sydney outer suburbs - while the premium end remains stubbornly slow.
Practical Advice for Vendors
The single most actionable insight from the September 2026 data for vendors is this: the longer a property sits on the market, the lower the final sale price relative to what an accurately-priced launch would have achieved.
A vendor who lists at $1.35 million in a market where $1.25 million is the comparable sales evidence will typically sit for 50 to 70 days, reduce their expectations by degrees, and ultimately sell for $1.22 million or below. A vendor who lists at $1.25 million based on current evidence will typically sell within 30 days with less negotiating friction.
The data from Cotality makes this pattern explicit: vendor discounts are at 4.2% in capitals. Properties that are sitting are not sitting at the price they are going to achieve. They are sitting at the price the vendor wishes they could achieve. The market will eventually correct that gap, and the vendor will pay for the time cost and the campaign stigma in the final number.
If you must sell in spring 2026, get a thorough comparable sales analysis for the past 60 to 90 days, not for what sold in 2024 or early 2025. Those prices are no longer available in the current market.
The Macarthur Corridor Spring Season
In south-west Sydney, the Macarthur corridor spring season typically brings genuine activity from first home buyers and young families looking to be settled before the school year. Suburbs including Oran Park, Gregory Hills, Camden, and Narellan see a reliable cohort of buyer demand that is less discretionary than the premium Sydney markets.
Stock levels in the Macarthur growth corridor are running higher than a year ago, consistent with the national picture. But the market is still transactional - properties are moving, just more slowly and with more vendor flexibility than was the case in 2024. A well-priced property in Gregory Hills or Leppington will still find buyers in spring 2026; it will simply take longer than it did 18 months ago and require the vendor to meet the market.
For buyers in this corridor, spring 2026 is a reasonable window to search. The inventory is there. The urgency is not. Getting pre-approval in place before the season accelerates gives you a material advantage when a well-priced property does appear. Book a call with Michael to get your pre-approval sorted before October.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is spring 2026 a good time to buy property?
For buyers, spring 2026 offers a wider choice of stock than any spring in the past four years. Total listings nationally are up 18.1% on a year ago, days on market are extending, and vendor discounts are at a two-year high. If you are pre-approved and have done your research on comparable sales, the conditions are favourable for a disciplined buyer. The risk is buying a falling market at an inflated price; the opportunity is buying from a motivated vendor at a price that already reflects reduced demand.
How should I price my home if I'm selling in spring 2026?
The Cotality data is unambiguous on this point: properties that are overpriced at listing sit on market for 60-plus days and ultimately sell for less than properties that are priced correctly from day one. The stigma of a long campaign reduces buyer confidence and increases the perceived negotiating room. Price to the current market, not to what your neighbour achieved in 2024. An agent or broker who can show you the comparable sales from the past 60 to 90 days is your most useful reference point.
Will the property market recover in early 2027?
A recovery in early 2027 depends primarily on two variables: the trajectory of RBA rate decisions through late 2026, and whether consumer confidence recovers. If rate cuts arrive as some market commentators expect, affordability improvements could bring buyers back into the market and support clearance rates above 55-60%. However, the current picture - with total listings elevated, new listings below average, and days on market still rising - does not yet show the conditions that typically precede a recovery. We will know more by December 2026.
Buying or selling this spring?
Whether you are preparing to buy in the Macarthur corridor or thinking about listing, a clear-eyed conversation about the current market conditions is the best starting point.
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